October 15th, 6:24PM
NFL—Week 5 finished 9-5-1, moving Rock’s Locks to 46-32-1 on the season. It was not the cleanest board I have put together, but the aggressive calls continued to hit.
Tampa Bay over Dallas was the biggest one. Every ESPN expert picked the Cowboys, and I took the Bucs as roughly a 9.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay won 24-16. I also hit San Francisco over Seattle, Buffalo over the Rams and Green Bay over Chicago. Those four calls gave me another week where the best work came when I was willing to break from the panel and the betting market.
The misses were different. Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta were games I felt very good about. Las Vegas was another miss. The Tennessee pick against Houston was a typo that I submitted, locked and had to live with. That is on me. The lesson from Week 5 is not to back away from the aggressive calls. It is to do a better job with the games that sit closer to 50/50.
Week 6 already gave me one of those swings. Denver was one of only three picks on the board against Seattle, and I had the Broncos. Denver entered as a 2.5-point home underdog and won 17-14 in overtime. That moves my season record to 47-32-1 before the rest of Sunday is finished.
MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 6
BRONCOS OVER SEAHAWKS ✅
Denver entered Thursday night as a 2.5-point underdog, and almost the entire ESPN panel went with Seattle. I stayed with the Broncos despite Denver missing Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga in the secondary. Seattle was also without linebacker Drake Thomas and running back Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s defense survived those losses, pressured Sam Darnold throughout the night and forced the overtime turnover that set up the winning field goal.
Broncos 17, Seahawks 14.
TEXANS OVER JAGUARS
Houston entered London as a 2.5-point underdog against a 4-1 Jacksonville team. I still like the Texans because their defensive front can disrupt Trevor Lawrence and force the game away from Jacksonville’s preferred rhythm. Houston is doing it without Tank Dell, David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre, while Jacksonville is missing corner Montaric Brown and has Jaylon Jones questionable. The injury sheet is not clean, but Houston has won three of the last four meetings and has enough pass rush to flip this game.
FALCONS OVER BEARS
Chicago is currently around a 1.5-point road favorite, but this is another game where I am breaking from the majority. Michael Penix Jr. is expected to play after the rib injury, while Chicago gets Caleb Williams back from the hamstring issue. The Bears, however, are missing linebackers T.J. Edwards and Keyshawn Elliott, running back Kyle Monangai and defensive lineman Dayo Odeyingbo. Atlanta can attack that weakened second level with Bijan Robinson and force Chicago to prove Williams is immediately back to full form.
Personal note: I do not trust Williams one bit, that whole charade is embarrassing for the Bears. There is no way you come back from a “POP” in your hamstring in 4 weeks. A “POP” is typically a grade 3 and more than a 50% thickness tear according to doctor google. requiring 6-12 weeks of rehab before you can even run let alone “HIT TOP SPEED” according to Williams’ press conference. What a joke! Maybe some people made plenty of cash on Kalshi 🙄
RAIDERS OVER BILLS
This is one of my biggest swings of the week. Buffalo is favored by roughly 5.5 points, and every ESPN expert on the board picked the Bills. I am taking Las Vegas. Brock Bowers practiced fully and carries no game designation, while Buffalo enters with D.J. Moore, Ed Oliver, Joshua Palmer and T.J. Sanders questionable. Las Vegas does lose defensive tackle Tonka Hemingway, but this is the kind of matchup where a turnover or two and Bowers controlling the middle of the field can change the entire game.
COWBOYS OVER PACKERS
Green Bay is only a 1.5-point favorite, so this is not a massive point-spread upset, but it is another minority call against the ESPN board. Dallas has enough offense to force Green Bay into a high-possession game, and the Packers are dealing with losses along the defensive front. Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford are out, and Benjamin St-Juste is also unavailable. Dallas has its own secondary concerns, including Cobie Durant being out, but the Cowboys have enough scoring ability to win this game outright.
Thoughts: I originally took the commanders over the 49ers and Titans over the Colts this week, changing those decisions last minute before Sundays slate of games. Something tells me I may regret one of those moves. I need to make up ground and I would rather lose with everyone versus go down another point this week. Plenty of time left to catch up!
