October 8th, 3:56PM
NFL—Week 4 did not match the 11-5 first-place run from Week 3, but it still produced another winning board.
Rock’s Locks finished 10-6, pushing the season record to 37-27. That makes it 30-18 over the last three weeks after the 7-9 opening week. The climb slowed, but it did not stop.
There were also a few calls worth carrying forward. I took the Giants over Arizona when the Cardinals closed as a road favorite, and New York won 36-24. I took Jacksonville over Cincinnati with the Bengals favored, and the Jaguars won 22-17. I also had Dallas over Houston with the Texans favored, and the Cowboys won 34-30. Those were not consensus-safe picks. Those were spots where the matchup said one thing and the market said another.
I also stayed with the Falcons over the Saints as a road underdog, and Atlanta finished the job on Monday night, 45-24. That gave me another outright underdog winner and closed the week at 10-6.
The misses stay on the board too. Pittsburgh lost to Cleveland. Buffalo was upset by New England. The Jets fell to Chicago. Las Vegas came up short against Kansas City. Denver lost to San Francisco. And the Lions went down in Carolina. No hiding any of it.
Now the board moves to Week 5.
At this point, there is enough evidence to stop treating every team like the version we expected in August. Four weeks have exposed protection problems, defensive weaknesses, quarterback limitations, injury depth and which teams can actually finish games. That is where this week’s picks come from.
MAJOR UPSET CALLS HIT IN WEEK 4
GIANTS OVER CARDINALS — Arizona closed as the favorite. New York won 36-24.
JAGUARS OVER BENGALS — Cincinnati closed as the favorite. Jacksonville won 22-17.
COWBOYS OVER TEXANS — Houston closed as the favorite. Dallas won 34-30.
FALCONS OVER SAINTS — New Orleans was favored. Atlanta won 45-24. FLIPS OF WEEK 3
STEELERS - I CHANGED MY PICK LAST SECOND
SEAHAWKS - CALL ME CRAZY BUT I HAD WASHINGTON AND FLIPPED
Week 5 is another chance to keep stacking wins and keep closing the gap on the top of the board. Every pick is public. Every miss stays up. Every upset call counts the same when the final score hits.
