October 11, 2026 | 9:42 AM ET
DETROIT LIONS—Detroit enters Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET game at State Farm Stadium at 2-2, looking to rebound from its 32-26 loss at Carolina before the Week 6 bye. The Lions rank fifth in scoring at 29.8 points and sixth with 389.3 yards per game, but they have scored only 10 first-quarter points and three points on opening drives.
Arizona is 1-3 after three straight losses, and its defense presents a clear opportunity for Jared Goff. The Cardinals have allowed 9.1 yards per pass attempt, 11 passing touchdowns and a 114.9 opponent passer rating while playing zone coverage on 79.9 percent of their defensive snaps.
The Cardinals still have legitimate offensive threats in Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and rookie running back Jeremiyah Love, but Marvin Harrison Jr. will be inactive as Arizona works toward a trade. Detroit’s defense also gets an Arizona offensive line without starting left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and right guard Isaiah Adams, giving a productive Lions pass rush its best chance to help a secondary that has struggled through four games.
INJURY ANALYSIS
Detroit ruled out Brian Branch, Rock Ya-Sin, Cade Mays and Ben Bartch, while defensive tackle Tyleik Williams is questionable with a foot injury after consecutive limited practices. Branch returned to practice this week but is not yet ready for game action, and Ya-Sin’s hamstring injury removes another corner from a defense already allowing 327 passing yards per game.
Arizona will be without Johnson, Adams and safety Andrew Wingard. Rookie seventh-round tackle Jayden Williams replaces Johnson on the left side, Jon Gaines II starts for Adams at right guard, and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson returns after missing two games with a back injury.
Defensive tackle Walter Nolen III and linebacker Karson Sharar are questionable, while Love practiced fully Friday and will play. Harrison’s absence further concentrates Arizona’s passing game around McBride and Wilson, who already account for 58 receptions and 500 receiving yards.
MATCHUP BY THE NUMBERS
Detroit has produced 1,557 yards at 5.7 yards per play, while Arizona averages only 294.8 yards and 4.3 yards per play. Lions rank fifth in offensive EPA per play at plus-0.12 and Arizona 19th at minus-0.07, with Detroit generating plus-0.24 EPA per pass compared with Arizona’s minus-0.10.
The defensive numbers reverse much of that advantage. Detroit ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play and has allowed 1,308 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 20 completions of at least 20 yards; Arizona ranks 27th in defensive EPA, but its biggest weakness is also the pass, where opponents average 9.1 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns.
Detroit has converted 39.1 percent of its third downs while allowing 52.8 percent, and Arizona is nearly identical offensively at 39.3 percent while allowing 45.5 percent. Both teams own a plus-three turnover differential, but Goff has yet to throw an interception while Brissett has four.
Which matters more Sunday, Detroit’s ability to punish Arizona through the air or the Lions’ ability to finally get off the field defensively?
THREE KEYS TO THE MATCHUP
MAKE ARIZONA STOP GOFF
Arizona has been far more effective against the run than the pass, allowing minus-0.23 EPA per rush but plus-0.29 EPA per pass. Detroit should still involve Jahmyr Gibbs, but Goff’s 1,214 yards, nine touchdowns, zero interceptions and league-leading 86.4 PFF passing grade give the Lions their strongest matchup against a defense allowing 9.1 yards every time an opponent throws.
MAKE THE ROOKIE LEFT TACKLE HANDLE HUTCHINSON
Jayden Williams has played only 18 offensive snaps before making his first NFL start against Aidan Hutchinson, who leads PFF edge defenders with 29 pressures and a 91.9 pass-rush grade. Arizona can help Williams with a tight end or running back, but doing so leaves Brissett with fewer receiving options against a Lions front that ranks second with 15 sacks and third with 99 total pressures.
3. KEEP MCBRIDE FROM OWNING THE MIDDLE
McBride leads NFL tight ends with 33 catches, while Detroit has allowed 37 receptions, 407 yards and six touchdowns to the position. Goff attacking Arizona’s secondary, Hutchinson stressing its rebuilt offensive line and Detroit preventing McBride from becoming Brissett’s automatic answer give the Lions three clear ways to control how this game is played.
LIONS PASSING GAME
Goff is completing 67.7 percent of his passes with 1,214 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions, and PFF has charted only one turnover-worthy play on 174 dropbacks. Arizona plays zone on nearly 80 percent of its snaps, so Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta should have opportunities between defenders while Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa force the safeties to respect the deeper part of the field.
St. Brown leads Detroit with 31 catches and five touchdowns, while Williams averages 14.3 yards per reception and TeSlaa 20.8. Detroit also generates plus-0.24 EPA per pass from 11 personnel, its most frequently used grouping, so the Lions can spread Arizona out without sacrificing efficiency; should Goff establish the game through the air before Detroit asks the run game to finish it?
LIONS RUN GAME & PROTECTION
Gibbs has 353 yards and five touchdowns on 80 carries, plus 22 receptions for 187 yards and two more scores, but Detroit is coming off a 46-yard rushing performance against Carolina. Arizona has allowed 4.2 yards per carry and has been considerably better against the run than the pass, so Gibbs’ value as a receiver may be just as important as his rushing total.
Detroit can still test Arizona with its inside running game, particularly after the pass forces linebackers and safeties to play with more depth. Josh Sweat has generated only six PFF pressures through four games, giving Penei Sewell and Detroit’s protection a favorable chance to keep five receivers available instead of sacrificing Gibbs or LaPorta as extra blockers; how much of Gibbs’ workload should come through the passing game Sunday?
CARDINALS PASS GAME VS. LIONS
Brissett has completed 67.8 percent of his passes, but his 818 yards have come at only 5.4 yards per attempt with six touchdowns, four interceptions and just four completions of at least 20 yards. PFF charts his average time to throw at 2.52 seconds and average depth of target at 6.8 yards, reflecting an offense that prefers to get the ball out quickly rather than live on deep throws.
McBride has 33 catches for 242 yards and Wilson has 25 for 258, leaving them as Arizona’s primary targets without Harrison. Detroit should make Brissett repeatedly complete shorter throws and tackle well after the catch rather than giving up the explosive plays that have produced 20 completions of at least 20 yards against the Lions; can Detroit’s pass rush force Brissett away from the quick throws he wants?
CARDINALS RUN GAME VS. LIONS
Love leads all rookies with 223 rushing yards on 55 attempts and has averaged at least 4.3 yards per carry in each of his last two games. Arizona averages only 3.9 yards per rush overall, but Love’s speed gives the Cardinals a way to punish Detroit if the Lions become too focused on McBride and the short passing game.
Arizona also uses three-tight-end personnel on 19.8 percent of its plays, more than twice the league average, giving the offense extra blockers without guaranteeing a run. Detroit has allowed 4.4 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns, so the defensive front and linebackers need to handle the run without forcing the secondary to bring extra help toward the line of scrimmage; can the Lions stop Love with seven defenders and keep their coverage intact?
FOUR KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
AMON-RA ST. BROWN VS. GARRETT WILLIAMS
St. Brown has 31 catches for 303 yards and five touchdowns and should see Garrett Williams when Detroit moves its leading receiver inside. Williams has played only 19 defensive snaps this season after returning from an Achilles injury, but he was one of the NFL’s better slot corners before the injury; St. Brown’s route running and ability to find space against zone give Detroit a chance to make Arizona defend the middle of the field on almost every passing down.
JAMESON WILLIAMS VS. MAX MELTON
Jameson Williams enters with 16 catches for 229 yards and a 14.5-yard average depth of target after producing 102 yards against Carolina. Max Melton has allowed an 88.7 passer rating when targeted in PFF’s available sample, and Arizona has already surrendered 14 passes of at least 20 yards, giving Detroit every reason to test whether Melton can handle Williams’ speed without consistent safety help.
AIDAN HUTCHINSON VS. JAYDEN WILLIAMS
Hutchinson has 3.5 official sacks, but his 29 PFF pressures better reflect how consistently he has affected quarterbacks. Williams has only 18 offensive snaps before Sunday, so Arizona must decide whether to leave the rookie alone, slide protection toward Hutchinson or use another player to help him—each option gives Detroit something else to attack.
JACK CAMPBELL VS. TREY MCBRIDE
McBride’s 43 targets, 33 catches and 5.8-yard average depth of target make him the receiver Brissett looks for when Arizona needs an easy completion. Campbell will not cover him alone all afternoon, but Detroit needs its linebackers and safeties to keep McBride from repeatedly catching the ball uncontested in the middle and turning manageable third downs into extended drives; which of these four individual matchups does Detroit most need to win?
ROCK’S FINAL READ
Detroit enters this game with the better quarterback, the more explosive offense and the most favorable individual matchup on either side of the ball: Aidan Hutchinson against rookie left tackle Jayden Williams. Arizona’s defense has allowed 9.1 yards per pass attempt and 11 passing touchdowns, while Goff has thrown nine touchdowns without an interception and is coming off a 412-yard game at Carolina.
Arizona’s best chance to keep the game close is to get Trey McBride heavily involved, establish enough of a run game with Jeremiyah Love to keep Detroit from attacking Brissett every down and prevent Hutchinson from overwhelming a rebuilt offensive line. Brissett has thrown four interceptions, including three against the Giants last week, while Detroit enters second in the NFL with 15 sacks.
Detroit should not need another 50-pass game from Goff, but Arizona’s defensive profile makes the passing game the most favorable path to controlling the matchup. The Lions should finish around 390-to-420 total yards with three to four offensive touchdowns, while Arizona projects closer to 300-to-330 yards and will need McBride, Love and efficient red-zone possessions to keep pace.
ROCK’S PREDICTION: LIONS 31, CARDINALS 23
Detroit should create enough explosive plays through the passing game to separate, while Arizona’s offensive-line injuries give Hutchinson and the interior rush opportunities to disrupt Brissett. The Cardinals have enough favorable matchups against Detroit’s defense to score, but asking Brissett to keep pace with Goff without Marvin Harrison Jr. and behind two replacement offensive linemen favors the Lions.
DETROIT LIONS PLAYER PROJECTIONS
JARED GOFF
Goff has averaged 303.5 passing yards through four games and has surpassed 269 yards in each of his last three, including 327 against Buffalo and 412 against Carolina. Arizona has allowed 9.1 yards per pass attempt and 11 passing touchdowns, giving Goff another favorable matchup without requiring the 52 attempts he needed last week.
Projected output:
26-30 completions
36-40 attempts
295-320 passing yards
2-3 passing touchdowns
0-1 interceptions
7.5-8.5 yards per attempt
JAHMYR GIBBS
Gibbs has 576 scrimmage yards through four games, although his rushing production has ranged from 156 yards against New Orleans to 46 against Carolina. Arizona has been considerably stronger against the run than the pass, making Gibbs’ receiving ability especially valuable if the Cardinals commit extra defenders to Detroit’s passing game.
Projected output:
16-19 carries
70-85 rushing yards
4-6 receptions
35-50 receiving yards
105-130 scrimmage yards
1 touchdown
AMON-RA ST. BROWN
St. Brown has caught at least eight passes in three of Detroit’s four games, including nine for 142 yards against Buffalo and eight receptions last week against Carolina. Arizona’s zone-heavy approach should give him consistent opportunities underneath and between the numbers, particularly if Jameson Williams forces the safeties to respect Detroit’s vertical passing game.
Projected output:
7-9 receptions
80-100 receiving yards
9-12 targets
1 touchdown
AIDAN HUTCHINSON
Hutchinson has 3.5 official sacks through four games, but his pressure production better reflects how consistently he has affected quarterbacks. Arizona will start rookie seventh-round pick Jayden Williams at left tackle after Paris Johnson Jr.’s season-ending injury, giving Hutchinson a matchup Detroit should attack throughout the game.
Projected output:
3-5 tackles
5-7 quarterback pressures
1-2 sacks
1-2 tackles for loss
2-3 quarterback hits
ALIM MCNEILL
McNeill has recorded a sack in three of Detroit’s four games and now faces an Arizona interior line without starting right guard Isaiah Adams. If the Cardinals devote additional protection toward Hutchinson, McNeill should see enough one-on-one opportunities inside to affect Brissett’s ability to step comfortably into throws.
Projected output:
3-5 tackles
2-4 quarterback pressures
0-1 sack
1 tackle for loss
1-2 quarterback hits
ARIZONA CARDINALS PLAYER PROJECTIONS
JACOBY BRISSETT
Brissett has completed 67.8 percent of his passes, but his production has fluctuated from 280 yards against San Francisco to 166 yards with three interceptions against the Giants. Detroit’s secondary has allowed substantial passing production, but Arizona’s offensive-line injuries make protecting Brissett long enough to consistently attack downfield much more difficult.
Projected output:
23-27 completions
34-39 attempts
220-250 passing yards
1-2 passing touchdowns
1 interception
3-4 sacks taken
TREY MCBRIDE
McBride has caught nine, eight, nine and seven passes through Arizona’s first four games and leads NFL tight ends with 33 receptions. Detroit has allowed 37 catches, 407 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends, while Harrison’s absence should make McBride an even larger part of Arizona’s third-down and red-zone passing game.
Projected output:
8-10 receptions
10-12 targets
70-90 receiving yards
1 touchdown
JEREMIYAH LOVE
Love’s workload has increased over Arizona’s last two games, producing 90 rushing yards against San Francisco and 63 against New York after totaling 70 over the first two weeks. Detroit has allowed 4.4 yards per carry, but Arizona’s injuries up front lower the expectation for consistently clean running lanes.
Projected output:
14-17 carries
60-75 rushing yards
2-4 receptions
15-25 receiving yards
75-100 scrimmage yards
0-1 touchdown
BUDDA BAKER
Baker has 25 tackles through four games and is coming off five tackles, two passes defended and an interception against the Giants. Gibbs’ receiving usage and St. Brown’s work through the middle should keep Baker involved, although a high tackle total could also mean Detroit is consistently completing passes in front of him.
Projected output:
7-9 tackles
1 pass defended
0-1 interception
0-1 tackle for loss
JOSH SWEAT
Sweat recorded his first sack of the season against the Giants and has six tackles with one sack through four games. His challenge gets significantly harder against Penei Sewell, so Arizona may need Sweat to win quickly or move him around rather than repeatedly asking him to beat Detroit’s best offensive lineman from the same alignment. If Sewell controls him one-on-one, Arizona will have difficulty creating enough pressure without committing extra rushers and exposing an already vulnerable secondary.
Projected output:
3-4 tackles
2-4 quarterback pressures
0-1 sack
1-2 quarterback hits
PROJECTED GAME OUTPUT
Detroit’s most realistic offensive output is approximately 390-to-420 total yards, including 295-to-320 passing yards and 90-to-110 rushing yards. The Lions should finish with three to four offensive touchdowns and no more than one turnover if Goff continues protecting the football at his current rate.
Arizona projects closer to 300-to-330 total yards, with approximately 220-to-250 through the air and 80-to-100 on the ground. McBride should account for a substantial percentage of Brissett’s production, but Detroit’s pass-rush advantage against Arizona’s rebuilt offensive line gives the Lions the better chance to create the negative plays that separate the game.