NOVEMBER 12TH, 2026 5:54 PM
NFL — Week 9 was my strongest week of the season. I finished 13-2, moving from 73-47-1 to 86-49-1 and keeping myself within striking distance of the top of the ESPN expert board. I hit Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Dallas, Kansas City, Detroit, New Orleans, the Giants, Rams, Denver, Houston, Seattle, Chicago and Buffalo. The only two misses were Las Vegas and New England.
The Raiders were my one major upset call, and that swing missed badly. San Francisco won 38-17 after Las Vegas turned the ball over five times. Brock Bowers still delivered with seven catches for 111 yards and a touchdown, but no offense survives that kind of turnover differential.
New England was the other miss. Green Bay won 45-27 and forced four Patriots turnovers while Jordan Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Still, 13-2 tied Fowler and me for the second-best Week 9 record. I enter Week 10 with 86 wins, five behind Clay for first place.
WEEK 10 OVERVIEW
Washington opens Week 10 Thursday night at New York, and I am taking the Commanders as a 2.5-point road underdog. These teams tied 27-27 earlier this season, and Jayden Daniels ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns in that meeting. Washington’s +7 turnover differential gives me enough reason to take another shot.
I enter Week 10 at 86-49-1, tied with Bowen, Kahler and Solak for fifth place by wins. Clay leads with 91, Thiry has 89, Moody 88 and Reid 87. Five wins separate me from the top —and this board feels much different than Week 9. Last week I limited myself to one major upset and went 13-2. This week the card naturally puts me on the underdog side four times. Washington, Atlanta, Minnesota, Dallas and the Chargers are all getting points, and I am taking four of them.
That does not mean I am chasing upsets just to gain ground. Each game gives me a specific matchup reason to go against the favorite. But there is considerably more risk built into this card than last week.
MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 10
COMMANDERS OVER GIANTS (25-21 WASH)
New York is favored by 2.5, but I am taking Washington. The first meeting ended 27-27, and Daniels gave the Giants major problems with his legs, rushing for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Washington also enters with a +7 turnover differential compared with New York at -2. The Giants have the better overall defensive numbers, but divisional familiarity, quarterback mobility and turnover margin give Washington a legitimate path to winning outright. My outright call is McCarthy struggles in this game.
VIKINGS OVER PACKERS (22-18 SKOL)
Green Bay is favored, but Minnesota already beat the Packers 39-22 in Week 1. This call starts with the Vikings defense. Minnesota enters Week 10 allowing an NFL-best 14.5 points per game, ranks second in total defense at 280 yards allowed and is tied for first with 29 sacks. Green Bay’s offense is dangerous, but now without Jacobs, multiple offensive linemen banged up and the defense is thinning out. I am trusting the defense to keep the score down and give Kirk Cousins enough opportunities to win at Lambeau.
COWBOYS OVER 49ERS (27-24 BOYS)
San Francisco is favored by roughly four points, Deebo Samuel should be back, but Dallas has enough offense to turn this into the high-scoring game the 55.5-point total suggests. The Cowboys rank sixth in offensive EPA per play, so this is not a case where I need Dallas to win 17-14. They can score with San Francisco. The danger is obvious: the 49ers rank first in offensive EPA and Dallas has struggled defensively. I am betting on the Cowboys at home to create enough explosive offense to flip a game the market expects San Francisco to control.
CHARGERS OVER RAVENS (17-12 BOLTS)
This is my biggest risk. Los Angeles is winless and Baltimore is favored by 4.5, but the Ravens are starting QB Jacoby Brissett after a trade deadline deal replaces the injured Jackson & Huntley. The Ravens have not been dominant offensively averaging only 1.43 points per drive over its last six games, 30th in the league, and has produced just six pass plays of 20-plus yards over the last five weeks. The Chargers have also played one of the NFL’s toughest schedules and this game is the perfect setup for their 1st win. With a total around 38.5, the market expects a low-scoring game. That creates enough variance for me to take Los Angeles outright.
UPSET CONSIDERATIONS
FALCONS OVER CHIEFS
This is a game where the Falcons run game could explode for 110+ yards with Bijan Robinson. Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix and Sam Darnold all had solid games passing on the Chiefs, and that is why I feel this game should have been a lock for the 5th upset of the week. But I ran away from it with 4 other volatile picks that could cash instead.
