October 31ST, 4:29 PM
NFL — Week 7 was another winning week, and this one came with exactly the kind of swings I have been looking for. I finished 9-5, tied for the best record on the ESPN board, and hit three of my five major upset calls. Cincinnati went into Baltimore and won 35-13. Tampa Bay went into Carolina and blew out the Panthers 43-13. Then came the big one — Houston was favored by more than 10 points, and I took the Giants outright. New York won 27-21.
The misses were Tennessee and Las Vegas. Tennessee came within three points of Cleveland, while the Raiders never gave me enough against the Rams. I can live with the Tennessee call. Las Vegas was the one I got wrong from the start.
That moves me to 63-43-1 through seven weeks, tied for fourth place with Graziano. Clay is sitting at 67 wins, so the gap remains four games. The aggressive calls are still working. The bigger job is cleaning up the safer side of the board so a 9-5 week starts becoming 10-4 or 11-3.
Week 8 already started with one going against me. I took Carolina as a 3.5-point underdog in Green Bay Thursday night. The Packers won 27-19. So I am starting Sunday 0-1, and the season record moves to 63-44-1.
Not the start I wanted, but there are still 13 games sitting on this board.
MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 8
BROWNS OVER STEELERS
Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 with the total sitting around 39, so Vegas is expecting another low-possession AFC North game. I am taking Cleveland. The Browns pressured Aaron Rodgers throughout the first meeting and sacked him five times, and ESPN notes Cleveland has covered five straight division games as an underdog. The injury situation also improved Saturday when starting right tackle Tytus Howard cleared concussion protocol. Pittsburgh will be without defensive backs Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter. If Cleveland keeps Rodgers uncomfortable again, I think the Browns can win this outright.
BRONCOS OVER CHIEFS
Kansas City is favored by only 1.5, and I am taking Denver at home. Pat Surtain II is cleared and has no game designation after practicing fully all week. Kansas City, meanwhile, lost two corners Saturday: L’Jarius Sneed was placed on injured reserve and Mansoor Delane was downgraded to out. Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are cleared, so this is not an injury-depleted Chiefs offense. The Broncos have held three straight opponents to 17 points or fewer, and their pass rush has been one of the NFL’s best. In a game with a 40.5 total, I like Denver’s defense and home field enough to take the upset.
RAIDERS OVER JETS
The Jets are favored by 1.5, but ESPN’s FPI actually gives Las Vegas a 52% chance to win, so the analytics see this differently than the betting line. New York is also beat up where I think this game can turn. T’Vondre Sweat, Joseph Ossai and Max Mitchell are out, David Bailey is doubtful, and Breece Hall is questionable. That is a major hit to a Jets front that has already allowed 153 rushing yards per game since Week 3, 31st in the NFL. Brock Bowers is fully cleared for Las Vegas and has topped 70 receiving yards in five straight games. The Raiders’ defense has been bad, so this is not a comfortable pick, but the Jets’ injuries and run-defense problems are enough for me to take Las Vegas outright.
Thoughts: I am still four wins behind first place, but these three calls are not the same kind of gamble. Cleveland and Denver are short underdogs in low-total division games where defense can control everything. Las Vegas is the bigger risk because that defense has been getting shredded, but the Jets are missing too much up front for me to ignore it. I am staying aggressive, but the goal is to take calculated swings instead of chasing upsets just to be different.
