October 21st, 1:42 PM
NFL — Man, I do not love starting the week from behind, but there are still 13 games sitting on this board. Week 6 was another winning week, but 8-6 is not where I want this thing to live. I hit Denver over Seattle as a 2.5-point underdog and Houston over Jacksonville as another 2.5-point dog. Those were exactly the kind of calls I have been hitting for several weeks now. The bigger problem came on the other side of the board.
Atlanta did not get it done against Chicago. Las Vegas came within three points of Buffalo but still goes down as a loss in a straight-up competition. Dallas did not get it done against Green Bay. Those three misses kept a good week from turning into another 10- or 11-win week.
That is where I am at right now. I am 54-38-1 through six weeks, sitting in a four-way tie for fourth place with Graziano, Kahler and Reid. Clay is sitting on 58 wins. Four games separate me from the top., but the aggressive calls are not what I am backing away from. Denver and Houston proved that again last week.
Week 7 already started with one of those decisions going against me. I took New England on Thursday night as a three-point underdog. Chicago won 30-24. So I am starting Sunday 0-1, and the season record moves to 54-39-1.
MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 7
BENGALS OVER RAVENS
Baltimore is favored by 1.5, but I am taking Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson is out, and that changes this matchup completely. Joe Burrow comes off the bye completing better than 70% of his passes in three straight games, and Ja’Marr Chase has absolutely tortured Baltimore throughout his career — 1,204 yards in 10 regular-season games. ESPN’s FPI actually gives Cincinnati a 54% chance to win. This may technically be an upset call, but I think the wrong team is favored.
TITANS OVER BROWNS
Cleveland is favored by 1.5 in a game with a 37.5-point total, which tells you exactly what Vegas expects — ugly football where one or two possessions decide it. Cleveland has scored only 43 first-half points all season, sixth fewest in the NFL, and now has to deal with Jeffery Simmons wrecking things inside. ESPN’s FPI has this game essentially dead even and actually gives Tennessee the slightest edge. At home, in a low-scoring game, I will take the Titans.
BUCCANEERS OVER PANTHERS
Carolina is favored by three, but Baker Mayfield is expected back after missing three games with the thumb injury, and that changes Tampa Bay’s offense. Carolina is already without starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, while Bucky Irving has carried the ball at least 15 times in five straight games and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has played 12 straight one-score games. I expect another one, and I trust Baker more than Bryce Young when it gets tight late.
GIANTS OVER TEXANS
This is the crazy one. Houston is favored by 10.5, and I am taking the Giants outright. J.J. McCarthy gets the start, which allows New York to bring the zone-read, rollout and option portions of the offense back into the game plan. Houston has already allowed 24 completions of 20-plus yards and has struggled to run the football well enough to put games away. The Texans have also failed to cover three of their last four as double-digit favorites. Huge risk. I am taking it.
RAIDERS OVER RAMS
The Rams are favored by 3.5, but losing Davante Adams changes a lot more than just the receiver rotation. Adams has 18 touchdowns since joining Los Angeles, and 15 of them came in the red zone. That is a massive amount of scoring production to replace. Las Vegas has generated 80 pressures and 15 sacks, even if they have not been getting home quickly enough. Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of six games. At home, I think Vegas can keep scoring and steal this late.
Thoughts: There are four wins between me and first place. I do not need to make all four of them up today. I just need to keep putting winning weeks together and stop giving games away where the better answer is already sitting in front of me. Thirteen games left this week. Time to go get some back!
