OCTOBER 26TH, 2026 7:19 AM ET
Detroit Lions — After Week 5, I started looking back at my weekly analysis to review what I predicted, what I got right and what I missed. Self-scouting is tough. Swallowing your losses is even harder.
My Week 7 prediction had Detroit beating Green Bay 30–27 in a tightly contested NFC North battle that could come down to the final possession. The final score was lower, but the three-point margin and final-possession finish were exactly right. Jake Bates kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired, giving Detroit a 20–17 victory.
Neither offense reached my projected scoring totals, but both had opportunities to put more points on the board. Detroit lost two fumbles, failed twice on fourth down and converted only two of five red-zone possessions into touchdowns. Green Bay also left points on the field, including two unsuccessful field-goal attempts. Missed opportunities, poor execution and questionable decisions kept both teams from turning productive drives into points, ultimately producing the three-point finish I anticipated.
I’m very late getting this posted, but we did review this on the Morning Show following the game. Having these predictions and reviews in writing each week is important to me. Hopefully, the analysis provides some useful insight as we head into the toughest part of the schedule, starting Sunday in Munich.
GIBBS AND THE RUNNING GAME
My pregame analysis identified Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense, depleted linebacking corps and reliance on split-safety coverage as opportunities for Detroit. The Lions generated substantial rushing and passing production against those weaknesses, although the distribution of touches and scoring opportunities differed from several individual forecasts.
I projected Jahmyr Gibbs for 90–125 rushing yards, expecting Detroit to challenge Green Bay’s run fits and force its linebackers to defend laterally. Gibbs finished with 116 yards on 29 carries, keeping the offense balanced and creating manageable passing situations for Goff.
His 4.0 yards per carry reflected a more difficult afternoon than the projection suggested, with inconsistent blocking limiting explosive opportunities. Gibbs also finished without a touchdown and caught five passes for 27 yards, below my receiving forecast of 35–55 yards. His goal-line fumble erased another scoring opportunity, so the rushing evaluation was accurate even though the expected scoring production never materialized.
