2026 NFL Draft Profile: EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
From West Coast Prodigy to Big 12 Wrecking Ball, Bailey became the nation’s most disruptive pass rusher
Now that the Lions are firmly out of the playoffs. The expected 2026 1st round draft pick will end up somewhere between picks 14-17. Exactly where the way too early projections have David Bailey slotted to be picked at the moment.
Bio & Background
David Bailey’s journey to the top of the 2026 draft boards began at California powerhouse Mater Dei High School. As a senior, he earned California Defensive Player of the Year honors, racking up 20.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks for a 12-0 state championship team. Rated as a consensus four-star recruit (and the first name off the five-star list with a 0.97 grade), Bailey chose Stanford over offers from Alabama and Penn State.
At Stanford, Bailey was an immediate impact player. He earned Freshman All-American honors in 2022 with 46 tackles and 8.5 TFLs. By his junior year in 2024, he had developed into one of the Pac-12’s few bright spots, posting a team-leading seven sacks and five forced fumbles. He departed Palo Alto with 111 career tackles, 22.5 TFLs, and 14.5 sacks across 33 games, along with his degree.
The narrative flipped in 2025 when Bailey entered the transfer portal and landed at Texas Tech. The change of scenery unleashed a different beast. In Lubbock, Bailey became the nation’s most disruptive pass rusher, tallying 13.5 sacks (leading the Big 12) and earning Unanimous All-American and Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year honors. His athleticism landed him at No. 3 on Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List”, confirming his status as an elite NFL prospect.
The Production (2025 Season & Career Context)
2025 Stats (Texas Tech): 44 Total Tackles | 17.5 TFL | 13.5 Sacks (1st in Big 12) | 3 Forced Fumbles
Career Totals (Stanford & Texas Tech): 155 Tackles | 40.0 TFL | 28.0 Sacks | 10 Forced Fumbles
PFF Grade: Earned a 93.2 Pass Rush Grade in 2025, the highest of any EDGE defender in the FBS, clearing Penn State’s Abdul Carter.
Athletic Testing (Verified):
Bench Press: 405 lbs
Squat: 550 lbs
Max Velocity: 22.16 MPH (GPS tracking)
Scouting Report: Strengths
Elite First-Step Explosion: Bailey possesses a “get-off” that borders on elite. He is consistently the first defender moving at the snap, dictating the tempo against slower-footed tackles.
Freaky Athleticism: As noted by The Athletic, Bailey clocked 22.16 MPH at 250 pounds. This recovery speed allows him to chase down plays from the backside that other defensive ends simply cannot reach.
Bend & Flexibility: He shows the rare ability to “run the hoop,” dipping his inside shoulder to corner under offensive tackles without losing speed.
Versatile Coverage Drops: Unlike many pure rushers, Bailey retains the coverage instincts from his Stanford days. He is comfortable dropping into the flat or hook/curl zones, making him a chess piece for 3-4 defensive coordinators.
Finishing Ability: His 10 career forced fumbles prove he hunts the ball, not just the sack. When he arrives at the quarterback, he arrives with violence.
Scouting Report: Weaknesses
Anchor vs. Run: At 250 pounds, he lacks the sand in his pants to anchor against NFL double teams. He can get washed out of gaps when tackles square him up in the run game.
Over-Pursuit: His greatest strength (speed) is occasionally his weakness. Bailey tends to overshoot play-side runs, leaving cutback lanes open for patient backs.
Hand Usage Consistency: While he has a deep bag of moves (spin, ghost rush), he relies heavily on speed. He needs to develop a more consistent power counter (bull rush) to punish tackles who over-set for his speed.
What They Are Saying: Quotes & Analysis
“He’s not just strong — he recorded a max speed of 22.16 mph, abnormal for an athlete of his size (6’3” and 250 pounds).”
— Bruce Feldman, The Athletic (2025 Freaks List)
“Bailey is a major reason for the success of Texas Tech’s defense in 2025... NFL teams may come to view him as a third-down specialist who can make the biggest impact on obvious passing downs.”
— Chase Kiddy, BetMGM Analysis
“[He] has immediate all-conference potential... A natural pass rusher who’s explosive off the edge, uses his hands well and has very good closing speed.”
— 247Sports Evaluation (High School Profile)
NFL Draft Projection
Height / Weight: 6’3” - 255 lbs
Projection: Mid-to-Late 1st Round (Picks 15-25)
Comparison: Haason Reddick / Yannick Ngakoue
Rationale: Teams like the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers will covet his immediate pass-rush utility. While he may need a rotational year to build run-stopping strength, his 23.4% pressure rate suggests he can generate sacks from Day 1.
Rock’s Take
The Lions appear poised to move on from Paschal, Onwuzurike, Davenport, and O’Connor, creating meaningful opportunities for new additions along the defensive front. Assuming the offensive line will largely be stabilized in free agency at left tackle or left guard with an all-pro type player, edge rusher would naturally become the most significant roster priority within the first two rounds of the 2026 NFL draft.
My roster‑construction framework, Roster Roulette, highlights the optimal moments to invest first‑round capital in premium positions. The trigger is simple: once a franchise commits a mega‑contract to a cornerstone player, it becomes strategically advantageous to pair that investment with a cost‑controlled rookie at the same position group.
With Aidan Hutchinson now secured on a long‑term deal, Detroit is positioned to pursue another impact edge rusher. Hutchinson profiles as the prototypical speed end, so the complementary piece should ideally be a power-based “can‑crusher”—a bigger, stronger edge who can consistently set the edge and anchor against the run. The Lions defensive identity is to stop the run first and I don’t see that changing.
Bailey does not fit that archetype. His frame and movement skills align more closely with a speed rusher as a 3‑4 off‑ball linebacker rather than a traditional 4‑3 edge. His ultimate projection will depend heavily on his official measurements and how fluid he looks in coverage during drills and on film. Unless the Lions are looking to upgrade the speed end, I just don’t see a fit here just yet.
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