NFL — For my third season, Rock’s Locks weekly NFL picks are back. After finishing third the last two seasons against some of the industry’s top NFL predictors, I’m putting every pick on the board again in 2026.

This year I’m simplifying the format: instead of writing out an explanation for every game, the weekly graphic will show my picks side-by-side with the ESPN experts. Every selection is locked before kickoff, the results will be tracked all season, and we’ll see where Rock finishes when the final standings are in.

Starting off the week 0-2 after the Rams and Patriots looked terrible in the opening week. Here’s to week 1 ya’ll! Cheers!

About Will Rock

Will Rock Is The Founder Of Detroit Football Journal And DFJ Sports, Providing Independent NFL Coverage With Credentialed Access Since 2024. His Work Focuses On Detroit Lions News, NFL Draft Scouting, Roster Analysis And Film Study.

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Detroit Lions —Each week, Rock’s Locks breaks down the NFL slate with straight-up winners, upset calls and the Lions prediction. Every pick is locked before kickoff, tracked throughout the season and updated weekly with the results—no changing the call after the game.

NOTE: Each week, the projected score for the upcoming game will be added or updated based on current injuries, roster changes, team performance and matchup information. The original preseason win/loss prediction will remain unchanged.

Week 1 | New Orleans Saints At Lions

ROCK’S LOCK: LIONS WIN | PROJECTED SCORE: LIONS 31 — SAINTS 17

Biggest Matchups

Lions Offensive Line Vs Saints Defensive Front: The Lions begin the season without Cade Mays, while Isiah Pacheco, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are also unavailable. That makes the reconstructed offensive line one of the first things I want to see against New Orleans. The Saints still have Chase Young and Tyree Wilson capable of creating pressure, but their defensive front is also missing pieces, including Cam Jordan. That changes this matchup considerably for an offensive line still trying to settle its combinations.

The Lions do not need the line to dominate immediately; they need enough stability for Jared Goff to get the football into the hands of one of the deepest groups of proven skill players on the roster.

Lions Skill Players Vs Saints Defense: Goff has Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, with Jackson Meeks adding another piece to the offense. That gives the Lions substantially more answers than New Orleans has to defend. Williams can stretch the defense vertically, St. Brown can control the underneath and intermediate areas, LaPorta can stress linebackers and safeties, and Gibbs can attack from the backfield or move outside.

Once this offense gets rolling, I think it can run roughshod over a lot of defenses this season. The question in Week 1 is how quickly Drew Petzing and this rebuilt offensive line get everything working together.

Lions Secondary Vs Tyler Shough And Chris Olave: The biggest defensive concern is obvious. Branch and Joseph are unavailable, and New Orleans should immediately test the replacement safety combinations. Tyler Shough has every reason to find out what Chuck Clark and the rest of the Lions secondary can handle. Chris Olave is the player I would make New Orleans beat us without. The Lions have enough flexibility to bracket Olave, take away the Saints’ best receiving threat and force Shough to consistently win somewhere else.

The secondary is compromised compared to what it will eventually become, but I am much more confident in the depth there than I was earlier in the offseason.

Rock’s Prediction

New Orleans is better than last season’s record suggests, and the Saints finished the year playing better football than they did early. They are also dealing with their own injuries, particularly along the defensive front, which helps a Lions offensive line that could use every advantage it can get in Week 1.

The Lions still have the better quarterback and far more offensive answers. Goff does not have to force the offense through one player because St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta and Gibbs can all attack different areas of the defense. Defensively, I expect New Orleans to test the replacement safeties early, but taking Olave away and forcing Shough to consistently work elsewhere should favor the Lions.

Ford Field becomes part of the matchup in the opener. The Lions have enough offensive talent, enough defensive depth and enough answers to pull away.

FINAL PREDICTION: LIONS 31 — SAINTS 17

Week 2 | Detroit Lions At Buffalo Bills

ROCK’S LOCK: LIONS LOSE

Biggest Matchups

Josh Allen Vs Lions Secondary: This is the matchup that worries me most. The Lions are still without Branch and Joseph, and now they are going on the road against Josh Allen. Buffalo has added more receiving help, including DJ Moore, which gives Allen another player capable of stressing the defense vertically and creating yards after the catch. The Lions are going to play more nickel this season and should have more answers for mobile quarterbacks, but Allen can destroy a good initial rush by extending the play.

Hutchinson, Wonnum and Derrick Moore cannot simply chase sacks. They have to maintain rush lanes and keep Allen from turning a good defensive snap into a 20-yard scramble or a deep completion after the coverage breaks down.

Lions Passing Game Vs Buffalo’s Changing Defense: Buffalo has undergone enough defensive change that I think there are places for the Lions to attack. Gibbs can stress the linebackers horizontally in the passing game rather than having to do all of his damage on the ground. St. Brown and LaPorta can work the middle, and this feels like a game where LaPorta could have opportunities down the seam.

The Lions have enough offensive talent to turn this into another high-scoring Buffalo matchup, but the protection has to hold up and the offense cannot waste possessions.

Short Rest Vs Buffalo’s Home Opener: The schedule is part of this prediction. The Lions get four days after the opener and then travel to Buffalo for the first game in the Bills’ new stadium. Detroit is still expected to be without Mays, Pacheco, Branch and Joseph. Buffalo gets the emotion of opening a new building with one of the AFC’s best teams and quarterbacks.

That does not mean the Lions cannot win—I went back and forth on this game—but when the personnel matchup is already close, the shortened week and road environment become enough to move the prediction.

Rock’s Prediction

I had the Lions winning this game earlier in the offseason, and I still think they are capable of doing it. Buffalo is not some unbeatable team, and the Lions offense has enough weapons to create problems against a defense going through its own changes.

The deciding factor for me is Allen against a secondary that is still learning its new structures without Branch and Joseph. Add the four-day turnaround, the road trip and the opening of Buffalo’s new stadium, and the Bills get a slight edge.

This could easily become one of those games where Lions fans panic about the secondary afterward. I would not. It is one game, early in the season, against one of the most difficult quarterbacks in football to defend.

FINAL PREDICTION: LIONS LOSE

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Week 3 | New York Jets At Detroit Lions

ROCK’S LOCK: LIONS WIN

Biggest Matchups

Aaron Glenn Vs The Lions: This is not a normal matchup because Aaron Glenn knows this roster. He knows what Aidan Hutchinson does well and where he can get himself into trouble. He knows the tendencies of the players who were here when he coordinated the defense, and he understands how this offense wants to attack certain looks.

The other side of that is the Lions know Glenn. They know his pressure philosophy and how aggressively he wants his defense to play. There is familiarity on both sides, which turns this into much more of a coaching chess match than the Jets’ 2025 record would suggest.

Lions Offensive Weapons Vs Rebuilt Jets Defense: The Jets went 3-14 last season, but I would not treat this like a 3-14 football team. They have aggressively rebuilt the roster, and their defensive front is much more dangerous. Travonte Sweat gives them a massive interior presence, while the upgraded edge room could create problems for a Lions offensive line playing only its third game together.

The Lions still hold the offensive advantage because the Jets have to defend Gibbs, LaPorta, St. Brown and Williams across every level of the field. That offensive continuity is one of the biggest reasons I still give the Lions the edge.

Geno Smith And Jets Skill Players Vs Lions Defense: Geno Smith gives Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall a much more credible passing-game partner than what the Jets have had recently. Kenyan Sadiq could also become a serious matchup problem if he is healthy; he brings unusual size and speed to the tight-end position.

This is exactly why I do not see the Jets as an easy win just because of what happened last season. They have more ways to attack this defense, and Glenn knows where the Lions can be vulnerable.

Rock’s Prediction

The Jets may be one of the most improved teams on the schedule. Their record from last season and an easy preseason strength-of-schedule rating can hide how much they changed the roster.

The Lions still have the advantage where I trust them most: offensive continuity and home field. Goff already knows where his answers are. Gibbs, LaPorta, St. Brown and Williams force the Jets to defend every level of the field, and Ford Field makes life considerably harder on a team still developing its new identity.

This should be a tougher game than people expect, but the Lions have enough offensive continuity to overcome Glenn’s familiarity with the roster.

FINAL PREDICTION: LIONS WIN

Week 4 | Detroit Lions At Carolina Panthers

ROCK’S LOCK: LIONS WIN

Biggest Matchups

Lions Pass Rush Vs Carolina Offensive Tackles: This matchup changed my original prediction. I initially had Carolina as an upset possibility, but injuries along the Panthers offensive line moved the line-of-scrimmage advantage toward the Lions. Carolina is expected to be without both starting tackles through this portion of the season, and that puts Bryce Young directly in the path of Hutchinson, Wonnum, Derrick Moore and a deep group of defensive linemen.

I do not think Kelvin Sheppard has to manufacture pressure in this game. The Lions should be able to rush four, keep more defenders in coverage and rotate the front using the type of hockey-line shifts this roster was built to handle.

Panthers Defensive Front Vs Lions Offensive Line: Carolina can create problems on the other side. Derrick Brown and Jaelan Phillips give the Panthers two players capable of testing a Lions offensive line that is going to be challenged every week until it proves otherwise. Opponents are going to throw everything they can at this group, especially early in the season.

The Lions cannot allow Carolina’s front to wreck the game before Goff gets access to his weapons. This is another matchup where Gibbs can help by forcing the defense to defend the run, the perimeter and the passing game instead of simply attacking the pocket.

Lions Defensive Depth Vs Panthers Offense: By Week 4, Branch, Joseph and Pacheco are still expected to be unavailable, but the rest of the roster should be much more settled than it was in Week 1. The secondary will have had three games to develop chemistry, and Gibbs should be completely comfortable carrying the workload as the lead back.

More importantly, the Lions defensive front has enough different bodies and skill sets to keep pressure coming without exposing the secondary. Carolina’s injuries at tackle create an opportunity for the defense to finally put all of those pieces together.

Rock’s Prediction

Carolina is coming off a playoff season and has maintained continuity under Dave Canales and Ejiro Evero. They also added defensive talent, so this is not an opponent I am dismissing.

What changed the prediction for me is the offensive tackle situation. Losing both starters dramatically changes Carolina’s ability to handle the Lions defensive front. Bryce Young should see pressure without the Lions having to constantly send five or six rushers, which lets Sheppard keep more defenders behind the rush and protect a secondary still missing Branch and Joseph.

I originally looked at this as a potential Panthers upset. The injuries up front moved me away from it. Carolina can keep this competitive into the fourth quarter, but the Lions defensive line eventually takes control.

FINAL PREDICTION: LIONS WIN

1st Quarter Prediction

WEEK 1: WIN VS SAINTS — 31-17

WEEK 2: LOSS AT BILLS

WEEK 3: WIN VS JETS

WEEK 4: WIN AT PANTHERS

ROCK’S 1ST QUARTER RECORD: 3-1

About Will Rock

Will Rock Is The Founder Of Detroit Football Journal And DFJ Sports, Providing Independent NFL Coverage With Credentialed Access Since 2024. His Work Focuses On Detroit Lions News, NFL Draft Scouting, Roster Analysis And Film Study.

Get Detroit Lions News, Film Study And Independent NFL Coverage From Detroit Football Journal Delivered To Your Inbox.

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