October 21st, 1:42 PM

NFL — Man, I do not love starting the week from behind, but there are still 13 games sitting on this board. Week 6 was another winning week, but 8-6 is not where I want this thing to live. I hit Denver over Seattle as a 2.5-point underdog and Houston over Jacksonville as another 2.5-point dog. Those were exactly the kind of calls I have been hitting for several weeks now. The bigger problem came on the other side of the board.

Atlanta did not get it done against Chicago. Las Vegas came within three points of Buffalo but still goes down as a loss in a straight-up competition. Dallas did not get it done against Green Bay. Those three misses kept a good week from turning into another 10- or 11-win week.

That is where I am at right now. I am 54-38-1 through six weeks, sitting in a four-way tie for fourth place with Graziano, Kahler and Reid. Clay is sitting on 58 wins. Four games separate me from the top., but the aggressive calls are not what I am backing away from. Denver and Houston proved that again last week.

Week 7 already started with one of those decisions going against me. I took New England on Thursday night as a three-point underdog. Chicago won 30-24. So I am starting Sunday 0-1, and the season record moves to 54-39-1.

MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 7

BENGALS OVER RAVENS

Baltimore is favored by 1.5, but I am taking Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson is out, and that changes this matchup completely. Joe Burrow comes off the bye completing better than 70% of his passes in three straight games, and Ja’Marr Chase has absolutely tortured Baltimore throughout his career — 1,204 yards in 10 regular-season games. ESPN’s FPI actually gives Cincinnati a 54% chance to win. This may technically be an upset call, but I think the wrong team is favored.

TITANS OVER BROWNS

Cleveland is favored by 1.5 in a game with a 37.5-point total, which tells you exactly what Vegas expects — ugly football where one or two possessions decide it. Cleveland has scored only 43 first-half points all season, sixth fewest in the NFL, and now has to deal with Jeffery Simmons wrecking things inside. ESPN’s FPI has this game essentially dead even and actually gives Tennessee the slightest edge. At home, in a low-scoring game, I will take the Titans.

BUCCANEERS OVER PANTHERS

Carolina is favored by three, but Baker Mayfield is expected back after missing three games with the thumb injury, and that changes Tampa Bay’s offense. Carolina is already without starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, while Bucky Irving has carried the ball at least 15 times in five straight games and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has played 12 straight one-score games. I expect another one, and I trust Baker more than Bryce Young when it gets tight late.

GIANTS OVER TEXANS

This is the crazy one. Houston is favored by 10.5, and I am taking the Giants outright. J.J. McCarthy gets the start, which allows New York to bring the zone-read, rollout and option portions of the offense back into the game plan. Houston has already allowed 24 completions of 20-plus yards and has struggled to run the football well enough to put games away. The Texans have also failed to cover three of their last four as double-digit favorites. Huge risk. I am taking it.

RAIDERS OVER RAMS

The Rams are favored by 3.5, but losing Davante Adams changes a lot more than just the receiver rotation. Adams has 18 touchdowns since joining Los Angeles, and 15 of them came in the red zone. That is a massive amount of scoring production to replace. Las Vegas has generated 80 pressures and 15 sacks, even if they have not been getting home quickly enough. Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of six games. At home, I think Vegas can keep scoring and steal this late.

Thoughts: There are four wins between me and first place. I do not need to make all four of them up today. I just need to keep putting winning weeks together and stop giving games away where the better answer is already sitting in front of me. Thirteen games left this week. Time to go get some back!

Read more

October 15th, 6:24PM

UPDATED 10.21.2026

NFL—Week 5 finished 9-5-1, moving Rock’s Locks to 46-32-1 on the season. It was not the cleanest board I have put together, but the aggressive calls continued to hit.

Tampa Bay over Dallas was the biggest one. Every ESPN expert picked the Cowboys, and I took the Bucs as roughly a 9.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay won 24-16. I also hit San Francisco over Seattle, Buffalo over the Rams and Green Bay over Chicago. Those four calls gave me another week where the best work came when I was willing to break from the panel and the betting market.

The misses were different. Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta were games I felt very good about. Las Vegas was another miss. The Tennessee pick against Houston was a typo that I submitted, locked and had to live with. That is on me. The lesson from Week 5 is not to back away from the aggressive calls. It is to do a better job with the games that sit closer to 50/50.

Week 6 already gave me one of those swings. Denver was one of only three picks on the board against Seattle, and I had the Broncos. Denver entered as a 2.5-point home underdog and won 17-14 in overtime. That moves my season record to 47-32-1 before the rest of Sunday is finished.

MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 6

BRONCOS OVER SEAHAWKS ✅

Denver entered Thursday night as a 2.5-point underdog, and almost the entire ESPN panel went with Seattle. I stayed with the Broncos despite Denver missing Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga in the secondary. Seattle was also without linebacker Drake Thomas and running back Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s defense survived those losses, pressured Sam Darnold throughout the night and forced the overtime turnover that set up the winning field goal.

Broncos 17, Seahawks 14.

TEXANS OVER JAGUARS

Houston entered London as a 2.5-point underdog against a 4-1 Jacksonville team. I still like the Texans because their defensive front can disrupt Trevor Lawrence and force the game away from Jacksonville’s preferred rhythm. Houston is doing it without Tank Dell, David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre, while Jacksonville is missing corner Montaric Brown and has Jaylon Jones questionable. The injury sheet is not clean, but Houston has won three of the last four meetings and has enough pass rush to flip this game.

FALCONS OVER BEARS

Chicago is currently around a 1.5-point road favorite, but this is another game where I am breaking from the majority. Michael Penix Jr. is expected to play after the rib injury, while Chicago gets Caleb Williams back from the hamstring issue. The Bears, however, are missing linebackers T.J. Edwards and Keyshawn Elliott, running back Kyle Monangai and defensive lineman Dayo Odeyingbo. Atlanta can attack that weakened second level with Bijan Robinson and force Chicago to prove Williams is immediately back to full form.

Personal note: I do not trust Williams one bit, that whole charade is embarrassing for the Bears. There is no way you come back from a “POP” in your hamstring in 4 weeks. A “POP” is typically a grade 3 and more than a 50% thickness tear according to doctor google. requiring 6-12 weeks of rehab before you can even run let alone “HIT TOP SPEED” according to Williams’ press conference. What a joke! Maybe some people made plenty of cash on Kalshi 🙄

RAIDERS OVER BILLS

This is one of my biggest swings of the week. Buffalo is favored by roughly 5.5 points, and every ESPN expert on the board picked the Bills. I am taking Las Vegas. Brock Bowers practiced fully and carries no game designation, while Buffalo enters with D.J. Moore, Ed Oliver, Joshua Palmer and T.J. Sanders questionable. Las Vegas does lose defensive tackle Tonka Hemingway, but this is the kind of matchup where a turnover or two and Bowers controlling the middle of the field can change the entire game.

COWBOYS OVER PACKERS

Green Bay is only a 1.5-point favorite, so this is not a massive point-spread upset, but it is another minority call against the ESPN board. Dallas has enough offense to force Green Bay into a high-possession game, and the Packers are dealing with losses along the defensive front. Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford are out, and Benjamin St-Juste is also unavailable. Dallas has its own secondary concerns, including Cobie Durant being out, but the Cowboys have enough scoring ability to win this game outright.

Thoughts: I originally took the commanders over the 49ers and Titans over the Colts this week, changing those decisions last minute before Sundays slate of games. Something tells me I may regret one of those moves. I need to make up ground and I would rather lose with everyone versus go down another point this week. Plenty of time left to catch up!

Read more

October 8th, 3:56PM

NFL—Week 4 did not match the 11-5 first-place run from Week 3, but it still produced another winning board.

Rock’s Locks finished 10-6, pushing the season record to 37-27. That makes it 30-18 over the last three weeks after the 7-9 opening week. The climb slowed, but it did not stop.

There were also a few calls worth carrying forward. I took the Giants over Arizona when the Cardinals closed as a road favorite, and New York won 36-24. I took Jacksonville over Cincinnati with the Bengals favored, and the Jaguars won 22-17. I also had Dallas over Houston with the Texans favored, and the Cowboys won 34-30. Those were not consensus-safe picks. Those were spots where the matchup said one thing and the market said another.

I also stayed with the Falcons over the Saints as a road underdog, and Atlanta finished the job on Monday night, 45-24. That gave me another outright underdog winner and closed the week at 10-6.

The misses stay on the board too. Pittsburgh lost to Cleveland. Buffalo was upset by New England. The Jets fell to Chicago. Las Vegas came up short against Kansas City. Denver lost to San Francisco. And the Lions went down in Carolina. No hiding any of it.

Now the board moves to Week 5.

MAJOR UPSET CALLS — WEEK 5

BUCCANEERS OVER COWBOYS ✅
This was the biggest swing on my Week 5 board. Every ESPN expert picked Dallas. I took Tampa Bay. The Cowboys closed around a 9.5-point favorite, and the Bucs went into Dallas and won 24-16. I was alone against the entire panel, and Tampa Bay delivered outright.

49ERS OVER SEAHAWKS ✅
Seattle was favored by roughly three points, and most of the ESPN panel backed the Seahawks. I went the other direction with San Francisco. The 49ers went into Seattle and won 32-29, giving me another outright underdog hit.

BILLS OVER RAMS ✅
Los Angeles entered as roughly a 3.5-point favorite, and the ESPN panel leaned heavily toward the Rams. I took Buffalo on the road. The Bills won 37-34, giving me a third outright underdog winner in Week 5.

PACKERS OVER BEARS ✅
The ESPN panel leaned heavily toward Chicago favored 1.5 points. I stayed with Green Bay. This one was not close. The Packers beat the Bears 31-7, giving me another win where I broke from the majority of the expert board.

Week 5 gave me Four outright underdog winners

• Tampa Bay

• San Francisco

• Buffalo

• Plus Green Bay against the ESPN majority.

At this point, there is enough evidence to stop treating every team like the version we expected in August. Four weeks have exposed protection problems, defensive weaknesses, quarterback limitations, injury depth and which teams can actually finish games. That is where this week’s picks come from.

Week 5 is another chance to keep stacking wins and keep closing the gap on the top of the board. Every pick is public. Every miss stays up. Every upset call counts the same when the final score hits.

Read more

NFL—After opening the season 7-9 and grinding back to .500 in Week 2, Rock’s Locks went 11-5 in Week 3 — the best record on the entire board and the only entry to finish alone in first place for the week. Three weeks in, the season record is now 27-21, and the climb happened fast.

I went from last place to fourth place in one week. More importantly, the gap to the top is down to just three wins. What looked like a hole after Week 1 is suddenly a race again, and there is a lot of football left to play.

MAJOR UPSET CALLS WEEK 3

• BROWNS

• COLTS

• RAIDERS

• FALCONS

BIGGEST COIN FLIPS OF WEEK 3

• STEELERS - I CHANGED MY PICK LAST SECOND

• SEAHAWKS - CALL ME CRAZY BUT I HAD WASHINGTON AND FLIPPED

Week 3 was exactly why I said I wanted a couple weeks of evidence before attacking these games. Tendencies are becoming real. Injuries are changing matchups. Offensive lines are showing where they can be attacked. Quarterbacks are revealing what happens when the first read disappears. Defenses are showing which weaknesses are temporary and which ones opponents can keep exploiting. That information helped produce an 11-win week, and now the goal is to stack another one.

Week 4 is not about celebrating Week 3. It is about hunting down the three wins separating Rock’s Locks from the top of the board. Sixteen more games. Every pick stays public. Every miss stays on the record. I was at the bottom two weeks ago. Now I’m fourth.

Three wins from first place. Time to go get them!

Read more

NFL—Week 1 punched me in the mouth. Week 2 got me back to even. Now Week 3 is where Rock’s Locks is supposed to start separating from the pack.

I went 9-7 last week, moved the season record to 16-16, and then opened Week 3 by taking Atlanta over Green Bay when the ESPN panel went the other way. Falcons win, Rock’s Locks moves to 17-16, and now the rest of the board is set.

This is the week I’ve been waiting for. Sixteen games, several spots where I’m breaking directly from the expert consensus, and I’m putting every one of them on the record before kickoff. No changing picks after the fact. No hiding the misses. If I’m going to chase down this ESPN panel, this is where the climb starts.

I said before the season that the first couple of weeks are usually the hardest to read because teams are still showing us who they actually are. By Week 3, tendencies start becoming evidence. Injuries start changing matchups. Offensive lines get exposed. Defenses show what they can and cannot stop. Now there is enough football on tape to start attacking the board instead of guessing at it.

Read more

NFL—Week 1 was ugly. I finished 7-9 against the ESPN expert panel, while several of their picks landed at 11 or 12 wins and Moody finished 15-1. That is exactly why every pick goes on the board and stays there. No deleting misses and no pretending the bad calls did not happen.

Now we find out whether Week 1 was a bad start or the beginning of a long season. The first few weeks are the toughest, I usually turn on the jets by week 3 and don’t look back!

Rock’s Locks moves into Week 2 with another full NFL slate, 16 straight-up picks and several games where I am going directly against the expert consensus.

WEEK 2 PICKS

LIONS, PANTHERS, VIKINGS, EAGLES, STEELERS, JETS, BUCS, SAINTS, TEXANS, BRONCOS, CHARGERS, COWBOYS, SEAHAWKS, 49ERS, CHIEFS, GIANTS

Read more

Read more

Read more

Read more

Read more

Read more