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NFL—After opening the season 7-9 and grinding back to .500 in Week 2, Rock’s Locks went 11-5 in Week 3 — the best record on the entire board and the only entry to finish alone in first place for the week. Three weeks in, the season record is now 27-21, and the climb happened fast.

I went from last place to fourth place in one week. More importantly, the gap to the top is down to just three wins. What looked like a hole after Week 1 is suddenly a race again, and there is a lot of football left to play.

MAJOR UPSET CALLS WEEK 3

• BROWNS

• COLTS

• RAIDERS

• FALCONS

BIGGEST COIN FLIPS OF WEEK 3

• STEELERS - I CHANGED MY PICK LAST SECOND

• SEAHAWKS - CALL ME CRAZY BUT I HAD WASHINGTON AND FLIPPED

Week 3 was exactly why I said I wanted a couple weeks of evidence before attacking these games. Tendencies are becoming real. Injuries are changing matchups. Offensive lines are showing where they can be attacked. Quarterbacks are revealing what happens when the first read disappears. Defenses are showing which weaknesses are temporary and which ones opponents can keep exploiting. That information helped produce an 11-win week, and now the goal is to stack another one.

Week 4 is not about celebrating Week 3. It is about hunting down the three wins separating Rock’s Locks from the top of the board. Sixteen more games. Every pick stays public. Every miss stays on the record. I was at the bottom two weeks ago. Now I’m fourth.

Three wins from first place. Time to go get them!

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Detroit Lions — Three games into the 2026 season, Detroit’s defensive numbers reveal a unit producing legitimate disruption while still carrying several vulnerabilities behind the pass rush. These scatter charts help separate those two realities by comparing the Lions with the rest of the NFL across quarterback pressure, sacks, coverage structure, explosive passes and quarterback scrambling.

Detroit’s strongest results are up front. The Lions are generating pressure at an above-average rate, outperforming expectation and converting that disruption into sacks at one of the league’s better rates. The defensive approach also remains aggressive, with a high blitz rate despite using man coverage less frequently than the NFL average.

The problems emerge when quarterbacks survive that initial pressure. Detroit has surrendered an above-average passer rating, a high explosive-pass rate and too much production through the air. Mobile quarterbacks have also accumulated more total scrambling yards against the Lions than the league average, even though the yards allowed per scramble are closer to average.

Together, the charts describe a defense capable of wrecking plays before they develop but still vulnerable when quarterbacks escape pressure or get enough time to attack downfield. The next step is turning disruption into consistently better coverage results.

Blitz Rate vs. Man Coverage

Detroit is blitzing around 43% of the time while playing man coverage on only about 25% of snaps. That combination shows an aggressive pressure philosophy without relying exclusively on man coverage behind it, allowing Detroit to pressure while still using zone concepts.

Scramble Yards vs. Scramble YPC

Detroit has allowed roughly 65 quarterback scramble yards, more than league average, while its scramble YPC is closer to average. The concern is frequency and cumulative yardage: quarterbacks are escaping often enough to extend drives even without consistently producing huge gains.

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NFL—Week 1 punched me in the mouth. Week 2 got me back to even. Now Week 3 is where Rock’s Locks is supposed to start separating from the pack.

I went 9-7 last week, moved the season record to 16-16, and then opened Week 3 by taking Atlanta over Green Bay when the ESPN panel went the other way. Falcons win, Rock’s Locks moves to 17-16, and now the rest of the board is set.

This is the week I’ve been waiting for. Sixteen games, several spots where I’m breaking directly from the expert consensus, and I’m putting every one of them on the record before kickoff. No changing picks after the fact. No hiding the misses. If I’m going to chase down this ESPN panel, this is where the climb starts.

I said before the season that the first couple of weeks are usually the hardest to read because teams are still showing us who they actually are. By Week 3, tendencies start becoming evidence. Injuries start changing matchups. Offensive lines get exposed. Defenses show what they can and cannot stop. Now there is enough football on tape to start attacking the board instead of guessing at it.

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NFL—Week 1 was ugly. I finished 7-9 against the ESPN expert panel, while several of their picks landed at 11 or 12 wins and Moody finished 15-1. That is exactly why every pick goes on the board and stays there. No deleting misses and no pretending the bad calls did not happen.

Now we find out whether Week 1 was a bad start or the beginning of a long season. The first few weeks are the toughest, I usually turn on the jets by week 3 and don’t look back!

Rock’s Locks moves into Week 2 with another full NFL slate, 16 straight-up picks and several games where I am going directly against the expert consensus.

WEEK 2 PICKS

LIONS, PANTHERS, VIKINGS, EAGLES, STEELERS, JETS, BUCS, SAINTS, TEXANS, BRONCOS, CHARGERS, COWBOYS, SEAHAWKS, 49ERS, CHIEFS, GIANTS

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The Lions’ pass rush came out hot against New Orleans, created early disruption and looked ready to control the game up front. Then the pressure faded, the Saints adjusted and Detroit stopped affecting the quarterback with the same speed.

This video breaks down what changed after the strong start, where the pressure disappeared, how New Orleans handled the edge rush and why the Lions struggled to finish plays once the protection settled in.

The focus is on what actually happened against the Saints — not the offseason plan. We look at the timing of the pressure, whether the interior gave the quarterback room to climb, how often the edge won cleanly and why the rush could not sustain its early success.

Detroit showed it can create pressure. The bigger concern is whether it can keep doing it after an offense adjusts.

Detroit Lions - Jared Goff enters Week 1 with a new offensive coordinator, multiple changes across the offensive line and a Lions team trying to rebound from a 9-8 season that ended outside the playoffs. With another season of championship expectations surrounding the team, the off-season work must be enough to carry them all the way this time.

Goff discussed Drew Petzing’s offense, Penei Sewell’s move to left tackle, protection communication, Brandon Staley’s Saints defense and why the 2026 Lions have to establish their own identity.

About Will Rock

Will Rock Is The Founder Of Detroit Football Journal And DFJ Sports, Providing Independent NFL Coverage With Credentialed Access Since 2024. His Work Focuses On Detroit Lions News, NFL Draft Scouting, Roster Analysis And Film Study.

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Detroit Lions—the 2026 season opens Sunday against New Orleans before a four-day turnaround for a Thursday night road game in Buffalo. Starting 1-0 gives the Lions room to handle whatever happens on the short week. Opening 1-1 is manageable. Starting 0-2 puts pressure on this team before September is two weeks old.

New Orleans comes to Detroit trying to pick up where it left off. The Saints showed a ton of progress late in Kellen Moore’s first season, winning four straight before the Week 18 loss. Neither team enters Week 1 with 2026 regular-season film to diagnose the other’s current system. Establish an identity, protect the quarterback and force the other staff to adjust first.

Last season was a disappointment for the Lions. Sitting atop the NFC North at 8-5 before three straight losses ended its playoff hopes. New Orleans started 2-10 before winning four consecutive games and finished 5-4 in Tyler Shough’s nine starts. The Saints were 4-1 over their final five games; Detroit was 2-3.

HOW TO WATCH | PREVIOUS MATCHUPS | ODDS

• When: Sunday, September 13, 2026

• Time: 1:00 PM ET

• Location: Ford Field — Detroit, Michigan

• How To Watch: FOX

• Streaming: Fubo | Fox One

• Radio: WXYT-FM 97.1

• DraftKings Odds Favorite: Lions -7

• DraftKings Over / Under: 49.5 Points

• Lions 2025 Record: 9-8

• Saints 2025 Record: 6-11

• Lions Last Victory: Week 18 At Bears 19-16

• Saints Last Victory: Week 17 At Titans 34-26

• Lions/Saints Head-To-Head Series: Tied 13-13-1

• Last Matchup: Lions Won 33-28 In New Orleans In 2023

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MATCHUP BY THE NUMBERS

LIONS

Detroit finished fifth in total offense, third in passing, 14th rushing and fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game. The offense averaged 6.0 yards per play, 4.6 yards per rush and 6.9 net yards per pass attempt.

Detroit finished 18th in total defense, 20th against the pass, 14th against the run and 22nd in scoring defense at 24.3 points allowed per game. Opponents averaged 5.4 yards per play, 4.4 yards per rush and 6.1 net yards per pass attempt. Those rankings help explain why the 49 sacks did not tell the full story.

The Lions produced the fourth-most sacks in the NFL, but finished 26th in pass-rush win rate at 32 percent and had the league’s slowest average time to pressure at 2.92 seconds. The problem was not finishing sacks; it was disrupting the play quickly enough before the quarterback reached the top of the progression.

SAINTS

New Orleans finished 23rd in total offense and 28th in scoring at 18.0 points per game. The offense averaged 5.0 yards per play, 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 net yards per pass attempt.

The Saints defense ranked ninth in yards allowed and fourth against the pass, giving Detroit a much tougher Week 1 defensive matchup than New Orleans’ 6-11 record suggests. Opponents averaged only 4.8 yards per play, 4.0 yards per rush and 5.7 net yards per pass attempt.

The Saints were second in defensive EPA against the run and fifth in defensive success rate. Their 19th-place ranking in rushing yards allowed does not describe how difficult it was to consistently stay ahead of the chains against that front. New Orleans also finished 10th in defensive EPA per play.

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